Doing It by the Numbers . . . and Intuition. By Gene W. Edwards. Posted 1/12/2024.

First, and I’ll say it again, D. Trump will NOT win the primary. Hence, he will not be on the General Election ballot on 11/5/2024. Thank all his legal troubles and convictions for his increasing lack of support. That leaves . . . Nikki Haley. Joe Biden will win the election.

I suspect DeSantis will quit at any moment, like Chris Christie did. DeSantis will endorse Nikki Haley; Christie didn’t endorse her, or any other Trump-camp Republican.

I spent a couple of days in IA once, and the only thing colder in the universe is anti-MAGA Republicans . . . and they don’t like Nikki Haley, who is another Trump tintype echo chamber. DeSantis campaigned in all 99 Iowa counties . . . with only tepid support, and the weather was colder than a rat’s ass.

Iowa: home of cows and corn, farms galore, a couple of really good colleges . . . and not much else. The evangelicals and MAGA crowd will show up in force next Monday, during a polar vortex of below zero temperatures. I expect a tepid primary turnout of 75,000 in an average-sized state with a half-average-sized population, only 3,000,000 people.

DeSantis and the Republicans know that if DeSantis stays in the primaries, Haley won’t reach numbers anywhere close to Trump’s, whereas if DeSantis quits and supports Haley, she’ll be in the 40s% to Trump’s 50s% soon! — and Trump’s reputation is dropping like a rock! If she can reach the 40s, she’s an easy sell…