Member-only story
Intuitive Predictions about Hamas and Israel from Gene; by Gene W. Edwards; posted 11/22/2023.
I’ve been predicting that Israel, by the end, gets 120ish hostages back out of the 240 still in captivity. Half of them. Presently, Hamas’s only benefit from hosting the hostages is to add to the terror from when they took them.
From my intuition:
Where are the hostages presently being held?
Most underground, but not necessarily in tunnels — also in Gaza residents’ houses, below ground. The hostages are not held together. They are in some-40 separate places. They’ll be released piecemeal, not by date, and NOT in a bunch.
Hamas will always want an unequal deal: money, cease fires, and an exchange of Hamas prisoners we hold, including soldiers, women, and children, for a much fewer number of Hamas hostage Israelis released.
Hamas educates the Gaza and Arab world to hate Israel. Hamas acts victimized, but is using civilians as human shields, such as the Gazan’s bombed out of their homes or “forced” to leave their homes and still much endangered for injuries, new attacks, near-starvation, etc.
If by war-end 120 of the hostages are released, in deals or are found and set free by Israel, 120 will never be repatriated to their families and country. They’ll either be held endlessly in places in Lebanon or are dead! Mark my words!
One potential deal would be, “Hamas, leave Gaza and go to Lebanon or some other…