Professor Alan Lichtman’s Big Prediction: He Knows Who Will Win the 2024 Election. A Politics Blog by Gene W. Edwards. Posted 6/22/2024.

An MIT/Harvard professor, Alan Lightman, has predicted every American presidential election since 1982. See: https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/the-americas/what-is-allan-lichtman-s-prediction-for-the-2024-us-presidential-election-1.1109868 Lightman says it looks like Biden this time, depending on what happens between now and election time. Lightman came up with 13 keys or trends on which score each candidate. It looks to me like Biden “won” 9 out of 13. Score him for yourself. The likely winner needs 7 out of 13. As follows:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.